Sigh. I'm going to spell it out for you and say nothing more on the matter. The equation that the OP intended to post is the following: 2,550 * 1.99 * 0.7 = $3,552.15 This is broken down into the following: 2,550: The number of potential customers 1.99: THE PRICE OF THE APP 0.7: The factor needed to account for Apple's 30% cut $3,552.15: The potential income The key point here is that the price of the app has already been taken into account in the equation so the only mistake that the OP made was to write the factor as 1.7 instead of 0.7. Your assertion that that factor of 1.7 indicated a 15% cut would only have been correct if the original equation had been written without the app price, like so: 2,550 * 1.7 = $8,626 Since this wasn't the case I corrected you and also pointed out the amusing fact that the equation actually implied Apple would be gifting the developer an extra 70% of the sale price for every sale. I'm sure I don't need to explain to you just how unlikely that situation is to ever arise. Hope that helped
I understand I was saying how he was wrong and alternate ways to fix it. I UNDERSTAND! YOU DIDN"T UNDERSTAND WHAT I WAS SAYING!
Uhhh ...anyways, back to the original question - my personal opinion is that it's impossible to predict. After you've sold a game or two and tracked them you will get a feel for it though.
Hi Koya. I'm a bit curious about your approach to the whole thing. You guys poured your hearts into this making your first app, a Manga Reader. I guess you chose to make this app because you're passionate about Manga? Hopefully you found the development process enjoyable. I'm a bit baffled that you came up with this formula after finishing the app. The result showing that you would not make any real money from the app. If making money was your main goal, shouldn't you have done those calculations before you started on the project? If, on the other hand, you ventured into iPhone app programming because you thought it'd be an enjoyable experience that might earn you some money on the side, then what's the loss exactly?
This is, sadly, funny and naive. I've got about a dozen apps released, and am no closer to "getting a feel for it" than when I first started. Any attempt to model sales needs to account for the following: - competing apps, which might not even exist, yet, and could come out a day before yours, a month later, etc. - the unpredictability involved in getting featured by Apple or elsewhere - the possibilty that your app will get slammed with a nonsensical initial user review - the exponential extra visibility that comes from getting on a top list - the crazy AppStore fluctuations that can occur within categories when people go "free for a day" - the fickleness and ever changing tastes of customers as the AppStore evolves In the end, you can only play the odds as best you can. The only things that seem to be 100% a sure thing are licensed, mainstream ip (scrabble, UNO) and updates to already popular games packaged as sequals (sword and poker 2, face fighter gold).
That was exactly my point when I said it's impossible to predict. By "getting a feel for it", I meant you will get a feel for how chaotic and impossible it actually is!
As many devs have repeated, do not quit your full time job. Some people, like Rasterman, can, because they already have a steady income from other games, like Rasterman's machines at war.
The best way to predict sales is to write a really lame app with a nasty icon, price it at $999 and tell nobody about it. That way you can safely predict 0 sales. If you are proved wrong and sell a few copies, you wont worry too much about your inaccurate prediction
I have my MBA in entrepreneurship and marketing and no method I've tried to apply fits the app store. Unless you have a really solid, broad appeal game you're really just going to have to hope for the best (and even if you DO have the aforementioned game, it may not get traction for one reason or another). What I've learned is that you have to do your due diligence before the release as others have said. Do a YouTube preview, start an upcoming release thread, send out review requests to websites (pre release), get a press release ready - everything you can do to ensure a smooth release day. Hopefully, it will hit the ground running and will do well - getting on the charts is the hard part, but once you get up there, if you have the solid product, you can likely stay there for a bit of time. I did that for Backlash for the most part, we just had a bit of a buggy version 1.0 and by the time it was fixed it was making up ground for bad word of mouth. Even so, I've learned from it and our next release should go every smoother. You're a little behind with a niche release (as we were), but if you have localization support for Japan, I could see it doing very well there. Good luck!
It's kinda like gambling. If you make a really polished, really fun game, that has lot's of content, you'll get a good amount of income and you probably will get into the top charts for a few days or weeks. However, if you create an app that's simple but addictive, if the general audience finds it addictive, you could stay in the top charts for a very long time. However, you have a really low chance of getting into the top charts.
